Could rate cuts mean house prices heat up again?

Thinking of holding off buying until interest rates fall? Wait until you see what could happen to home prices. Here’s why it could make sense to buy sooner rather than later if you’re home loan-ready.

September saw the nation’s official cash rate kept on hold once again. But there is growing consensus that the RBA may cut the cash rate at one of its next few meetings.

Several of the big banks, including Westpac and NAB, are expecting rate cuts in the first half of next year.

Others, such as the Commonwealth Bank, are forecasting a rate cut in time for Christmas.

While lower rates can’t come soon enough for many struggling mortgage holders, there is one issue that has been largely overlooked, and that’s how home prices might respond to a cash rate cut.

Here’s what the experts say may happen.

How home values could respond to rate cuts

First up, it’s worth pointing out that higher rates have been with us since mid-2022.

Yet property values have climbed rather than cooled since then, with the national median value rising from $752,507 in June 2022 to $807,110 today.

With that in mind, if interest rates fall, many pundits believe home values could head even higher.

The question is, how much higher?

Ray White Economics has done the maths based on past property price movements following a long-awaited rate cut.

According to their analysis, home prices nationally could rise by 0.6% within just one month of a rate cut.

REA Group has teased out the numbers further, saying that based on current median values, a 0.6% price rise could add an extra $5,000 to the average cost of a home across Australia.

And that’s for just one rate cut.

​​SQM Research director Louis Christopher says four cuts next year, while still a more remote possibility, could cause a huge rebound in property markets that have recently been weaker – such as Melbourne and Sydney.

The impact in your state capital

Exactly how home prices respond to rate cuts is likely to vary between locations.

Here’s what Ray White Economics and REA Group say could happen in capital cities in the first month after one official rate cut:

– Sydney: values rise 1.4% adding an extra $15,300 to the median property value.
– Melbourne: values rise 1.0%, pushing up the median price by $8,000.
– Brisbane: values climb 0.4%, adding $3,400 to home prices.
– Canberra: values increase 0.5%, pushing up prices by just over $4,000.
– Adelaide: values rise 0.3%, adding $2,300 to property prices.
– Perth and Darwin: no change to values.

It’s worth stressing that these numbers reflect how the market has responded to rate cuts in the past. Things could be very different in the future.

Perth, for example, currently has one of the nation’s strongest property markets, and Ray White Economics suggests that home values there could rise further following a cut to the cash rate.

Should I buy now?

Holding out for interest rate cuts may seem to make sense. After all, lower rates can boost your borrowing power.

But as we have seen, it could also work against you.

Lower rates may push up home prices, and potentially fuel increased competition among buyers.

That’s why we believe the “right” time to buy is when you are ready.

And today’s spring market comes with the added advantage of more choice for buyers.

According to CoreLogic, the flow of freshly-advertised housing stock hasn’t been this high at this time of the year since 2021.

So if you’re interested in buying your first or next home (with the potential benefit of getting one or several rate cuts soon after your purchase), get in touch with us today.

We’ll help you assess your borrowing power in the current market, and if you find the right house, we’ll help you find the right loan for it.

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